🔗 Share this article

It was eight weeks ago when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the reason for the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

As per Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.