A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
